Playoff Scenerios with 2 Weeks Left!
by Eric Synrod
Okay Guys, here is what I got thus far.
Crittenden Division:
Title clinched by Fireseed, Todd has also clinched a first round bye in playoffs.
Westwood Division:
Title clinched by C-Men, Corey has also clinched a first round bye in playoffs.
Sandridge Division:
It is easier to give the scenarios based on this weeks outcomes, so here we go:
Week 12 matchups - Stigs vs CheektoWojo
- Andy's Red Hots vs BountyHunters
Week 13 matchups - Stigs vs Andy's Red Hots
- CheektoWojo vs BountyHunters
If Stigs and Andy's Red Hots win in week 12:
-Stigs clinches division title.
If Stigs and BountyHunters win in week 12:
- Stigs wins division title with win OR Bounty loss is week 13
- BountyHunters win division title with win AND Stigs loss in week 13
If CheektoWojo and Andy's Red Hots win in week 12:
- Stigs and Red Hots week 13 matchup will determine division champ
If CheektoWojo and BountyHunters win in week 12:
- BountyHunters win division title with win OR Stigs loss in week 13
- Stigs wins division title with win AND Bounty loss in week 13
So here is the mathematical chances of each Sandridge team winning the division (strictly mathematical odds):
Stigs - 62.5%
BountyHunters - 25%
Andy's Red Hots - 12.5%
CheektoWojo - 0% (sorry)
Crazy enough, this division could end with all teams having a 6-7 record, although the title would go to Hank since his BountyHunters would then have a 4-2 div record, topping the rest of the pack.
Okay on to the wild card spots. Only one team has been eliminated from playoff contention and that is The Skyns, everyone else still has a shot.
Teams that control their own destiny (win out and they are playoff bound):
Stigs - would be 8-5 and Sandridge Division Champ
Most Murderous - would be 8-5 and a 4th or 5th seed in playoffs
Syn City - would be 8-5 and a 4th or 5th seed in playoffs
Andy's Red Hots - would be 7-6, could be Sandridge Division Champs (Stigs loses out) or would have to hold points lead on Boys of Summer (if Justin also wins out)
Teams that win out and are in, with a tiny bit of help:
Boys of Summer - would be 7-6 and most likely in because of their high total points scored, just need a loss by Syn, Stigs, Red Hots, or Murderous.
BountyHunters - Would be 7-6, and win division with any loss by Stigs. It could get a little sticky if Hank wins out and does not win the division. He would probably then fight out a total points tiebreaker between either Syn City or Most Murderous (possibly Boys of Summer).
Teams that have to win out, but would still be longshots:
Ice Cold Bruschis - would be 6-7, and has a pretty good total points. If any 4-7 team wins out this is the team that has the best chance of making it in at 6-7.
CheektoWojo - would be 6-7 and could share a tie for division title with the rest of the division, but lose the division tiebreaker. This team would need a lot of help to win a points tiebreaker between another 6-7, but if they can beat Stigs and BountyHunters they will probably put up some decent weeks, so maybe....eh....maybe......if they win out....
Tecmo AllStars - would be 6-7 but would need a miracle to catch up in points with anyone else that could be 6-7 fighting for a number 6 seed...........but hey......a chip and a chair.........so you are telling me there's a chance.........
Well I know I didn't lay out the wild card scenarios exactly, because like last year it is really confusing even with 2 weeks left. Tune in next week where it will be much easier to tell whos in whos out. All I know is that it must be nice to be C-Men and Fireseed who can relax for these 2 weeks, and that it sucks to be The Skyns, who is probably already studying up for the League of Cowbell.
Crittenden Division:
Title clinched by Fireseed, Todd has also clinched a first round bye in playoffs.
Westwood Division:
Title clinched by C-Men, Corey has also clinched a first round bye in playoffs.
Sandridge Division:
It is easier to give the scenarios based on this weeks outcomes, so here we go:
Week 12 matchups - Stigs vs CheektoWojo
- Andy's Red Hots vs BountyHunters
Week 13 matchups - Stigs vs Andy's Red Hots
- CheektoWojo vs BountyHunters
If Stigs and Andy's Red Hots win in week 12:
-Stigs clinches division title.
If Stigs and BountyHunters win in week 12:
- Stigs wins division title with win OR Bounty loss is week 13
- BountyHunters win division title with win AND Stigs loss in week 13
If CheektoWojo and Andy's Red Hots win in week 12:
- Stigs and Red Hots week 13 matchup will determine division champ
If CheektoWojo and BountyHunters win in week 12:
- BountyHunters win division title with win OR Stigs loss in week 13
- Stigs wins division title with win AND Bounty loss in week 13
So here is the mathematical chances of each Sandridge team winning the division (strictly mathematical odds):
Stigs - 62.5%
BountyHunters - 25%
Andy's Red Hots - 12.5%
CheektoWojo - 0% (sorry)
Crazy enough, this division could end with all teams having a 6-7 record, although the title would go to Hank since his BountyHunters would then have a 4-2 div record, topping the rest of the pack.
Okay on to the wild card spots. Only one team has been eliminated from playoff contention and that is The Skyns, everyone else still has a shot.
Teams that control their own destiny (win out and they are playoff bound):
Stigs - would be 8-5 and Sandridge Division Champ
Most Murderous - would be 8-5 and a 4th or 5th seed in playoffs
Syn City - would be 8-5 and a 4th or 5th seed in playoffs
Andy's Red Hots - would be 7-6, could be Sandridge Division Champs (Stigs loses out) or would have to hold points lead on Boys of Summer (if Justin also wins out)
Teams that win out and are in, with a tiny bit of help:
Boys of Summer - would be 7-6 and most likely in because of their high total points scored, just need a loss by Syn, Stigs, Red Hots, or Murderous.
BountyHunters - Would be 7-6, and win division with any loss by Stigs. It could get a little sticky if Hank wins out and does not win the division. He would probably then fight out a total points tiebreaker between either Syn City or Most Murderous (possibly Boys of Summer).
Teams that have to win out, but would still be longshots:
Ice Cold Bruschis - would be 6-7, and has a pretty good total points. If any 4-7 team wins out this is the team that has the best chance of making it in at 6-7.
CheektoWojo - would be 6-7 and could share a tie for division title with the rest of the division, but lose the division tiebreaker. This team would need a lot of help to win a points tiebreaker between another 6-7, but if they can beat Stigs and BountyHunters they will probably put up some decent weeks, so maybe....eh....maybe......if they win out....
Tecmo AllStars - would be 6-7 but would need a miracle to catch up in points with anyone else that could be 6-7 fighting for a number 6 seed...........but hey......a chip and a chair.........so you are telling me there's a chance.........
Well I know I didn't lay out the wild card scenarios exactly, because like last year it is really confusing even with 2 weeks left. Tune in next week where it will be much easier to tell whos in whos out. All I know is that it must be nice to be C-Men and Fireseed who can relax for these 2 weeks, and that it sucks to be The Skyns, who is probably already studying up for the League of Cowbell.
